Alford Gets It and He is Nervous
By Josiah Ranen
Missouri Congressman Mark Alford just wrapped up 15 town halls in one week. Fifteen. That’s not just unusual, it’s unheard of. He’s the only Republican in Missouri willing to face voters that many times in person. That should tell you something. He knows the ground under his feet is shifting.
The reason is the GOP redistricting plan being put for Governor Kehoe and After President Trump signaled that he wanted Missouri to get an extra GOP seat. This means Democrat Emanual Cleaver will be forced into retirement come next year.
Here is the issue. The Dems already hold the 5th District, with its 60-40 Democratic lean. Redrawing it to guarantee a Republican win would necessitate pushing Democratic-leaning areas into the 4th and 6th Districts, reducing their GOP margins. That’s a risky move. In a normal year, it might hold, but in a potential 2026 Democratic wave fueled by Trump’s unpopularity and failure to combat heavy inflation, Republicans could lose all three seats. The smarter play was to leave the map as it is. But we all know that aint gonna happen.
Looking at the proposed map that was put out, this all means that Alford's Fourth District isn’t “Safe GOP” anymore. If the new map passes, it’s “Leans GOP.” And that’s a big difference. Half of Jackson County, a Democratic stronghold, would be in Alford’s district. Suddenly he’s not just talking to farmers in Sedalia or veterans in Warrensburg. He’s got suburban Kansas City voters in his base, and a lot of them aren’t wearing MAGA hats.
Alford’s town hall blitz looks less like confidence and more like insurance. He’s trying to lock in goodwill before the map locks him into a fight. He’s not dumb — he sees what’s coming. Inflation is still high. People are angry about prices at the grocery store, the gas pump, the mortgage statement. If Trump and the GOP can’t deliver on the economy, those minority voters who took a chance on Trump in 2020 and 2024 won’t stick around. They’ll go right back to the Democrats.
Honestly, Republicans in Jeff City are just following orders from President Trump, who is famously, not a details guy. But any one here in the Show Me state knows the details, but speaking truth to the presidents power is not a winning play so the Missouri GOP is running a real risk of having less representation rather than more. But dont tell the Donald that.
Meanwhile, look at the other side of the redistricting coin. Congressman Sam Graves is going to inherit southern Clay County — heavily Democratic territory. But his Sixth District is still safe. He’ll win, maybe by a smaller margin, but he’s not sweating it. Alford is. And he should be.
The lesson is simple. Republicans can’t keep winning on maps and slogans. Voters are watching their wallets, not their yard signs. Alford holding 15 town halls doesn’t fix inflation. It doesn’t cut grocery bills. It doesn’t stop insurance premiums from climbing. Unless the GOP can show real solutions, not just blame, Alford’s district could flip even as Cleaver loses his seat.
That’s why he’s out there, perched on stools in diners and community halls, taking every question. Not because he loves the spotlight. Because he’s scared. And because he gets the danger.
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